What is the #DragonBear? This is a comprehensive China-Russia modus vivendi of systemic coordination in strategic areas. 1️⃣ Emerging Power Dynamics: – Russia is positioning itself as a significant free rider in the global power struggle between the US and China. – Moscow utilizes hard power to enhance bargaining leverage and expand its influence in strategic regions. 2️⃣ Strategic Objectives – The war against Ukraine serves multiple purposes for Russia: – Subjugation of Ukraine. – Disruption of the European security architecture. – Reinforcement of Russia’s status as a great power in the new Cold War, aligning with China against America – Russia and China aim to reshape the global order amidst the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) and the future global governance. 3️⃣ Geopolitical Ambitions – Russia’s Goals: – Expand its sphere of influence in Europe with China’s backing and visa versa (see Hungary, Serbia) – Shaping the future of the European security architecture. – China’s Goals: – Establish a strategic sphere of influence, including: – Subjugation of Taiwan. – Control of the South China Sea, East China Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean. – Jointly with Russia, prevent foreign powers from dominating Eurasia. – Develop a new Arctic maritime route, bypassing the US-controlled Indo-Pacific route. 4️⃣ Global Governance and Economic Strategies – Undermining US-led Global Governance and the American allies: – Challenge the US influence in international organizations (e.g., UNSC). – Promote alternative global governance frameworks (e.g., BRICS+, SCO). – Economic, Trade and Commodities (Energy, Food, Fertilizers) Collaboration: – Increase bilateral trade using national currencies (currently 90% in yuan and ruble), countering Western sanctions and reducing reliance on the US dollar globally. – Collaborate on advanced technologies (AI, facial recognition, internet, media, telecommunications, quantum computing). – Lead the advancement in 4IR technologies against the US. The winner of the 4IR will shape the new global order norms, standards and rules. 5️⃣ Regional Influence and Collaboration – Establish regional zones of influence in Latin Americs, Aftica, West, Central and Southeast Asia: – Russia provides diplomatic and security networks, and expertise in mining and fossil fuels. – China supplies liquidity and infrastructure development. – These zones are emerging in various parts of the world as the most middle powers are navigating between the US, China and Russia without taking sides (eg India) – Focus on BRICS+ as emerging energy and food commodities powerhouse 6️⃣ Military and Space Collaboration – Explore joint military-technological and space initiatives and transfer, work on joint projects (eg early warning, aircraft) – Develop new space stations and missions. – Use AI, quantum and other new technologies in the defence sector 7️⃣ US Strategic Concerns – A strategic partnership between China and Russia (even transactional) poses a significant threat to the US, creating a two-front scenario. – The DragonBear’s primary objective is to counterbalance US influence in international politics. – The US is likely to shift focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region, driven by China’s rise in East Asia. 8️⃣ Geopolitical Risks and Dependencies – Both Russia and China aim to avoid scenarios where Russia joins an adversarial bloc. – China views a potential partnership between Russia and the US as highly undesirable. – Russia opposes a “Pax Sinica” in Eurasia, resisting Chinese domination in regions like the Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, South Caucasus, and Eastern Europe. 9️⃣ Critical Uncertainties – The unpredictable trajectory of Russia’s war against Ukraine may force Putin to align Russia more closely with China’s geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, increasing dependencies within the “DragonBear” modus.
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