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The fragile memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, signed only last month, has collapsed under the weight of renewed kinetic exchanges, and with it the last institutional guardrail restraining the Gulf's descent into open-ended attrition.

The supervised pause did not hold.

World trade in goods and commercial services rose 7% in 2025 to US$34.65 trillion on a balance-of-payments basis, with goods up 6% and services up 8% (WTO).

The contracted deliveries of missiles for the Patriot system to Ukraine will not begin until next year, announced Ukrainian Defense Minister Fedorov.

Series of publications on the updated study on the GSR as of July 4

While global attention remains fixed on Hormuz, the Indo-Pacific theater of Cold War 2.0 has hardened on three fronts simultaneously.

Contribution to the Pragmaticus "Restart Austria" series

Oil markets have quietly declared the Hormuz crisis over, and that judgment may be premature.

The Global System Rupture did not end in June 2026.